Exploring Trump’s Hypothetical Second Term: Changes in Economy and Immigration?

Donald Trump speaking at event with American flags.

President Trump’s expected return to the White House could dramatically reshape economic and immigration policies, impacting global trade and US labor markets. Trump’s plans to reintroduce tariffs on US imports from Mexico to stop the influx of migrants. He also will implement tax cuts as a way to lower inflation.

Reinvigorated Tariffs

Donald Trump is poised to reshape the US economy with a potential second term that emphasizes increased tariffs on imports. Proposed tariffs target a range from 10-20% across the board and could go as high as 60% on Chinese imports. These measures might disrupt global trading systems and raise economic tensions.

Some experts believe these aggressive tariff tactics will be used as leverage in negotiations. “How far tariffs go depends on how far President Xi is willing to negotiate with Trump,” said Gary Hufbauer.

Fiscal and Economic Policies

The next Trump administration may focus heavily on fiscal policy with an agenda featuring tax reforms. Repeal of certain parts of the Inflation Reduction Act is considered, although some clean energy tax rebates might remain unaffected. Economists predict these policies could trigger inflation and slow economic growth.

Trump’s control over Congress could ease the passage of these measures, while his potential influence over Federal Reserve policy could further shape the economic landscape.

Immigration Policy Impact

Immigration policy may tighten under a second Trump term, possibly reducing refugee admissions and reinforcing policies like “remain in Mexico.” Anticipated large-scale deportations could significantly impact the labor market, placing additional strains on wages and contributing to inflation.

Such changes in immigration policy are expected to make the job market more competitive, affecting both domestic workers and employers.

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